Kosovo’s Dangerous Statehood

When most Americans are introduced to the international media’s chosen narrative about Kosovo, that of ethnic Albanians overcoming oppression and securing their right to self-determination, they are likely to feel proud that America served as midwife to the birth of the newest country in the world. They are no doubt doubly proud to see all the American flags being waved by jubilant Kosovar Albanians . Wow, they must think, here are some Muslims who actually love us for a change. On top of this, some Serbs had to come along and burn the US Embassy in Belgrade in response to the Kosovar independence vote, thus cementing the perception that America has truly been on the side of the angels in the Balkans.

Kosovar Albanians

My suppositions may seem exaggerated, but they have some basis in fact. The backstory of Clinton’s war in Kosovo was that of America returning to the heart of Europe to defeat a new, would-be Hitler — Slobodan Milosevic. After Milosevic’s forces retreated from the province and the bombs stopped falling in Belgrade, the story of Kosovo quickly disappeared from public consciousness. The media subsequently downplayed such developments as ethnic cleansing perpetrated by the Albanian side after the war, since that would have complicated the black and white politics of the Balkans. Still, Kosovo came roaring back to the front pages this week, and it seems many young Americans still subscribe to the storyline first drafted in the 1990s.

Just consider the results of this ABC News/Facebook poll on the subject. 54% of the respondents are between the ages of 18 and 24.

Facebook poll on Kosovo

While at first I was going to chalk this result up to the overexuberance of Obama supporters who flood Facebook polls, support for Kosovar independence in the poll is in fact broad across the ideological spectrum. (A caveat: the Facebook polls do not give statistics to separate American Facebook users from foreign Facebook users, so there’s a chance, however slight, that anti-Serb foreigners could be rigging the poll.) If accurate, this poll can only mean that the media has one again downplayed the risks of supporting the Kosovar Albanians in favor of a feel-good morality play. But those risks are real, and we have only begun to feel the effects.

The most immediate fallout from Kosovo’s vote on Feb. 17 is the mortal blow dealt to the project of Westernizing Serbia proper. Paradoxically, this means that American policy, insomuch as it encouraged Kosovar independence, has utterly undermined American policy, insomuch as it supported Serbian liberalization.  After all, the US and the European powers had several key goals at war’s end: first, removal of Milosevic and his nationalist clique, and second, the cultivation of liberal values in Serbia, leading perhaps to the ultimate goal of Serbian accession to the European Union. Unfortunately, after the Kosovar vote, the Serbian tilt towards the West has ended for the foreseeable future and Pan-Slavic ties between Serbia and Russia have strengthened considerably. As Serbia’s patron, Russia can be counted on to block Kosovo’s integration into the world community, contributing to the possibility that Kosovo will be a failed state in the years to come. Beyond these troubles, there remains a very real possibility of a new war in the region.

One would have hoped that the West had learned its lessons after statebuilding experiments in Iraq and Yugoslavia — two historical fictions held together by the centripetal force of dictatorship — but our present situation suggests otherwise. Kosovar statehood, like the British creation of Iraq and the Euro-American creation of Yugoslavia, is a perfection sought at the expense of the good. Our loss will come in the form of the dangerous precedent established by the West in Kosovo, which threatens to embolden a myriad of separatist factions around the world, all of which have clamored for a state of their own, yet who, until now, have lacked the legal and political standing to make their desires a reality. However, by recognizing Kosovo, the West has unwittingly aided these factions by rewriting the rules of statehood.

Let’s now look at how the West has decided in favor of statehood for Kosovo and what that means to the rest of the world. To begin with, Kosovo meets only a few of the traditional requirements for statehood. Points in favor of Kosovar statehood include the fact that province is territorially contiguous and internationally recognized by the United States and most — but not all — of the European Union. The Palestinians will tell you that the former is a necessary but not sufficient condition for statehood. The latter, while a classical rule of international politics, is a matter of relativity; Taiwan certainly functions like a state despite the fact that few countries dare recognize it as such.

Points against Kosovar statehood are numerous and include the fact that Kosovo, in a Weberian sense, does not have a monopoly on the use of force; the fact that the territory is not economically independent from Serbia, or, in the place of Serbian ties, Western aid; the fact that the present-day population of Kosovo is the product of a relatively recent demographic shift and not a “permanent” situation; and the fact that Kosovo qua state has no prior historical reality. Taking these points one by one,

  • the Weberian criticism is the weakest, since Kosovo has, since the declaration of UN Resolution 1244, continued to be administered by NATO and the UN, and the Kosovar government has had no chance to exercise its full powers. As such, Kosovo’s stability in the absence of foreign presence remains a giant question mark.
  • Next, the poor Kosovar economic situation will necessitate either long-term support from Western powers, thrusting Kosovo into a semi-colonial situation, or else invite economic union with Albania. Neither of these options is good for Kosovar sovereignty, and a federal arrangement with Serbia would have been more conducive to economic growth and regional stability
  • Moving on, rather than being Albanian all along, Kosovo has become Albanian thanks in part to internal migration within the former Yugoslavia and World War II era Nazi policies which saw Kosovar Serbs expelled en masse and replaced by Albanian allies of the Nazi regime. Admittedly, some in the United States may be bold enough to argue that recent demographic changes deserve to be honored by new political arrangements, but few Americans would support this logic being applied to the benefit of Mexicans living in the American Southwest.
  • Lastly, the biggest strike against Kosovar statehood is that it has never historically been its own country. For hundreds of years it was either controlled directly by the Serbs or by the Ottomans (who controlled the Serbs). Unlike East Timor, Kosovo wasn’t an independent territory violently annexed by its neighbor. Nor was Kosovo part of historical Albania seized by the Serbs the way Israel seized the Sinai Peninsula. Yet historians and the media have worked together to create the fiction of Kosovar nationhood since the breakup of the former Yugoslavia, and like the story of demographic change noted above, the political history of Kosovo is rarely discussed in the Western media, much to the detriment of the public and decisionmakers alike.

Given that many of the strongest rationales for Kosovar statehood are nonexistent, Western foreign policy elites have had to invent new reasons to make Kosovo an independent country, and it’s these reasons that pose the greatest dangers to piece.

First, there is the idea — which is seemingly an outgrowth of identity politics — that ethnic homogeneity within a particular territory is enough to justify separatism. That is to say that if a country’s population is 85% group A and 15% group B, but 90% of group B is concentrated within a single enclave, then that enclave has the right to declare itself a state. Many people will accept this idea at face value without considering what it means. If, for example, group B is distributed throughout several small enclaves within a country, it may decide to engage in ethnic cleansing for the sake of unifying those enclaves and earning the “right to statehood.” In effect, this is what the Kosovar Albanians did by pushing out as many Serbians and Montenegrins as they could from 1999 to 2008. Although self-determination is a cherished right, many Westerners take for granted the fact that other cultures do not share our belief that our right to self-determination ends where another man’s face begins.

Second, it is suggested that the Kosovar Albanians be given a state thanks to their years of oppression at the hands of the Serb majority. This is of a piece with the Serb and Orthodox belief that Kosovar independence is another punishment visited upon Serbia for Milosevic’s misbehavior. (And that the US is furthermore an “enemy” of Orthodox peoples.) This idea is not objectionable outright — it is, after all, a basic tenet of Zionism and therefore a founding principle of the state of Israel — but it begs the question of just how long and how severe the oppression must be to warrant the creation of a new state as the remedy. (When the oppression happened is also an important factor to consider. Is there a statute of limitations on such grievances?) If applied equally, this principle would lead to a splintering of countless states in the international community, not to mention emerge as a grave threat to the very American concept of pluralism, which addresses the issue of oppression through the rule of law.

Lastly, many Western observers and diplomats argued that Kosovo deserved to become a state because it wanted to. (That any parties could object was inconceivable, inconceivable!) This makes sense after a fashion. If you were a diplomat tasked with bringing peace to the region, Kosovar independence would appear to be an appealingly simple solution to a complex problem, and so, like the doctor who encourages amputation instead of chemotherapy in every case of cancer, allowing Kosovar Albanians such an extraordinary degree of self-determination was the easy way for the West to get out of the Balkan morass. What they don’t take into account, though, is how exactly these three new rationales for Kosovar independence will resonate outside of the Balkans.

Starting with the ethnic Russian militants in Georgia’s Abkhazia and Ossetia regions and continuing with DPP rabble-rousers in Taipei, the recognition of Kosovo has emboldened separatists who will attempt to leverage these new standards of statehood to their own advantage. We close now with a brief survey of several internal conflicts worldwide and a look at how they will be affected by the Kosovo precedent.

regional conflicts

As the table suggests, the independence of Kosovo stands to have a strong impact on India should the Kashmiri Muslims coalesce into an effective separatist group. Likewise, the Tamil Tigers will have new strategies in their war for statehood and Tamil nationalists in India’s State of Tamil Nadu might follow suit. Overall, however, Kashmir is the most dangerous territory since, besides an internal conflict, it could lead to a regional conflagration between Pakistan, India, and China.

For its part, China will probably be minimally affected, though Xinjiang “terrorist/separatist” groups will remain a factor, and in general, China will stay “gravely concerned” about Kosovar independence. Taiwan could declare itself independent tomorrow but such a move would only further isolate Taiwan rather than invite the full embrace of the international community.

Like Taiwan, Chechen independence would likely go unrecognized owing to the resurgent strength of Russia within the international system. That doesn’t mean, however, that militants wouldn’t look to Kosovo for inspiration and begin another round of fighting.

As it stands, the Russian-dominated regions of Georgia, the Muslim regions of Mindanao in the Philippines, the Spanish Basque Country, and Kurdistan have the greatest potential to erupt into conflict. These conflicts might be civil wars and/or increased terrorism in the Philippines and Spain or they might be full-scale regional conflicts, such as a Russo-Georgian war on behalf of independence for Abkhazia and Ossetia. And if Iraq fails to make significant progress towards a stable government in the coming years, the Kurds will be extremely tempted to take the Kosovar route, and the West — specifically the US — will have to dangle a very large carrot to prevent Iraq from fragmenting.

In conclusion, as nationalist groups around the world begin to learn and apply the lessons of Kosovar independence to their own irredentist and separatist claims, they will not only renew their conflicts with increased vigor but also force the West into a corner. Will we take the hypocritical position of creating one set of rules for Kosovo while requiring other regions to play by the old rules? Will we encourage a thousand democratic flowers to bloom, or will we recognize the danger state fragmentation poses to world peace? Advisers to the next president should take a long, hard look at the Kosovo situation right now, because what they might be seeing is the next president’s war.


7 thoughts on “Kosovo’s Dangerous Statehood

  1. I would love to leave a more intelligent comment, but I can’t right now, so I’ll settle for this: You have summed up all that worries me about Kosovo’s “independence”.

  2. If I were a Serb, I would like my government to congratulate Kosovars for their independence. True, Kosovo is holy ground for the Serbs, but it is not about to move to Switzerland or slide to the Middle East and disappear behind minarets. I would be a proud Belgrader if my government offered assistance to the new nation in good faith; proposed a free trade agreement. The implicit humanistic message of a new Serb policy would read like this: “Times have changed in Europe and so should our relationship. Heartfelt apologies for a past that our nation would also like to forget. Indeed, it is time for you to come in your own. But let’s not forget that we have a shared history. Perhaps we could pursue common goals together in the future; of course, at your discretion and timing. Most importantly, both our countries would like to become members of the European Union.” (To lighten up somewhat it should be made clear for the Kosovars that the Serb national side will show no merci in the soccer stadium.)

    A unilateral declaration of good will would pay off in ways that would please even the flag-burning hot heads in those sad remnants of Marshall Tito’s vanished pseudo monarchy — dubbed “communist but democratic, oh so democratic” by the exigencies of the Cold War. EU membership tends to make national frontiers fade away. Remember how the French and Germans fought over Alsace-Lorraine for centuries, losing millions of people, crippling and blinding others in untold numbers? And now the border between the two countries is less closely guarded than the New Jersey Turnpike.

  3. Peter, I think you’re right that such a position would generate the strongest economic and social benefits for all the parties involved. Most of my doom and gloom is reserved for other regions of the world, and some people remain optimistic about Kosovo.

    Kosovo is an economic drag on Serbia, after all, and Serbia would benefit greatly from EU accession — accession delayed indefinitely in the event of a new conflict in the Balkans.

    Alas, cooler heads don’t appear to be prevailing at the moment. And the Russians, if they have any pull at all, will try to push-pull the Serbs away from the scenario you outlined.

  4. Peter Pogany but you are NOT a Serb and that makes all the difference!

    Seeing what you EUROS,Westerners/Americans are up to, we are loosing the wish to be a member of yours at all. The mood is changing. I, myself, changed my mind from a pro-EU (but always anti-NATO), through eurosceptic, to anti-EU 100%.
    At the moment I am affraid of EU allowing Kosovo stays part of Serbia and implementing swift membership of Serbia. What a nightmare would that be!
    Hopefully, we’ll never become a member of yours.

    But I’m the one whose history is about 350 years of permanent rebellions and struggle against Ottomans. Although local pro-EU politicians warned “the West” many times not to pose the question “either EU or Kosovo” to us, which was heard and well taken by some EU’s, luckilly you still have enough Cochoners (sp) 😉 to spell it.
    You miss to see we are protected, among the others, by the epic and heroic struggle of late President Milosevic before the cangaroo court ICTY, where he exposed the Western lies. That’s when I forgave everything to him, that’s where many of us did and even many more are still to do.
    And the west thought it was your victory.!!!!

    And you simply can’t see the meaning of the porposals to agree to renounce Kosovo for some EU benefits and our perception of such proposals. It would be simply better for us to vanish as humans than to accept it. We would have to cease being what we are and become something else. We haven’t done that in spite of the impallements, rape, devshirme, dzhizyah and all the other stuff under Ottomans. Search wikipedia after “cele kula” to see what it is about. We survived them, and they were force – not a bunch of liars and cowards like today’s EU and NATO. The core of EU is delusion and lie. And the truth is powerfull weapon against it.
    The other day resolution in Serbian parlament on Kosovo was adopted. We have even the utmost globalist party G17 voting pro and warning retaliations against those countries that recognize unilateral independence. And the ideology of that party is globalization and EU, they emerged as “experts” initially. So even those thugs are backing now. It’s not they’d love it to happen, but there will be no Serb to DARE not to stand against it. It’s about that – no one to DARE not to stand against it.
    It was our rebellion in 1804 that brought the lethal wound to the Ottoman Empire.
    Kosovo will be Mamaev Kurgan to the West.???

    And we don’t need much from our brothers,Russians and others. We even don’t need their soldiers here, though they’d be welcome but only if that fits the strategic game they play where we are only a guard far behind the enemy lines, on the spot not possible to defend. We only need their prayers and couple millions of people to get out to the streets in Russia and sing a song for us: Ka-lin-ka, Ka-lin-ka, Ka-lin-ka maja…so we can all become knights.

    The fact is, we in the East are your last hope and last chance. There is no one else left to save you – but that’s possible only if you want to save yourslves and ask us for help – something not likely to happen, you seem to be blind and deaf.
    Recognize unilaterally independent Kosovo.
    We need you do it for all of us to see and wake up.
    Because we have different notions of freedom – to us it is not about the money, it’s about something else, and you managed to remind us about that. And we saw, amazed, that your democracy is actually damnocracy.
    The Holy Mother is already risen and shining, under the rule of Kosovo knight Tzar Vladimir the Fearsome. And you in the west can’t possibly even grasp the meaning of the previous sentence.

  5. Well Kosova is Independent now as it should of been years ago.
    Avanger i’m sure Peter doesn’t wanna be a serb, which sane person would want to be a serb?!!.
    They get what they deserve!!!
    I’m very happy to live in the Free Kosova.
    Thank you USA

    • I am Georgian and fully understand what avanger both says and implies. The life was not given to us – humankind – to seek prosperity and happiness in this world. Rather, it is means and chance for every one of us to attest the crucification of Jesus Christ with our own blood and by doing so become worth of a place in Eden, i.e. heavenly Jerusalem. Many centuries ago, at the battle for Kosovo, Serbs chose a place in Eden over the earhtly eden and prosperity of their homeland (many – even so called christians – would not understand meaning of these words). It was an ultimate sacrifice to be exemplified by all the real Christians (who were wrongly named as “Orthodox Christians”). It is not a defeatism, it is love for humans – even enemies – and the God, not the money and power in this world which is allowed by the God to be governed by the fallen angel. Ultimately, perhaps billions will miss eden, but maybe millions will make it with repenting and preying and help from the Lord and saints such as Saint Tsar Lazar, Saint Barbara, Saint Nicholas. Our sins will always speak for us either in this or the other world…victory is a relativistic term in this regard. Serbs lost the battle of Kosovo to Turks and this time again to agarians but won another battle for the heavenly Serbia…

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